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Projects & Initiatives

Selected Resources

Improving State Need Assessments of Secondary Science and Mathematics Teachers: Challenges, Possibilities, and Recommendations

Michael B. Allen
March 2010

This unit of the project consists of a concise list of resources relevant to the development and analysis of teacher supply and demand estimates. Several of the resources included focus specifically on science and mathematics, but most are more general. The list is not intended to be exhaustive, and it does not include all of the studies that are referenced in the other units that comprise the overall project. The entries here are selected for their illumination and their utility. All are accessible online through a direct link from the title in the listing here, although in a few cases only the introduction or summary is directly accessible. The entries are grouped by subject, and they include several new resources listed here that are not referenced elsewhere in the project.


Individual State Teacher Supply and Demand Analyses

Most states do an annual teacher supply and demand analysis, the focus of which is much broader than science and mathematics teachers. The particular analyses listed here were selected because they include illuminating discussions or helpful examples of data or methodology.

  1. Critical Path Analysis of California’s Science and Mathematics Teacher Preparation System. (2007, March). Sacramento, CA: California Council on Science and Technology and The Center for the Future of Teaching and Learning. Accessed at http://www.ccst.us/publications/2007/2007TCPA.php.
  2. Educator Supply and Demand in Illinois: 2008 Annual Report. (2008, December). Springfield, IL: Illinois State Board of Education.
  3. Garrett, J., & Frost, M. (2008, December). Fall 2008 Teacher/Administrator Supply & Demand Survey. Center for Educator Recruitment, Retention, & Advancement.
  4. Maryland Teacher Staffing Report 2008-2010. Baltimore: Maryland State Department of Education.
  5. Reichardt, R. (2003). Teacher Supply and Demand in the State of Colorado (MCREL research report). Denver, CO: Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning.


Student Enrollment and Population Projections

A projection of student enrollment is an essential prerequisite for a projection of teacher supply and demand. Moreover, many student enrollment forecasts for a state or district are based on projections of the entire population in the region. The resources listed here offer student enrollment and general population projections on a district, state, or federal level. They were selected because they have interesting methodological discussions that may be helpful to states or districts in developing student enrollment projections.

District Projections:

  1. Enrollment Projections, Demographics, & Build-Out Scenario Report. (2006, June 9). Alexandria, VA: Alexandria City Public Schools. Accessed at http://www.acps.k12.va.us/board/enrollment/
  2. Winkler, R., & Kemp, S. (2009). Planning for Tomorrow’s Schools and Communities: A Demographic Study of Eau Claire Area School District. Madison, WI: Applied Population Laboratory. Accessed at http://www.apl.wisc.edu/Publications/APL_report_ECASD2009.pdf

State Projections:

  1. Hays, J. (2008, July 9). K-12 Headcount Enrollment Projection for Kansas: 2008-09 School Year through 2012-13. Topeka, KS: Kansas Association of School Boards.
  2. K-12 School Enrollment Projections Study. (2008, December 24). Olympia, WA: Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction. Accessed at http://www.k12.wa.us/SchFacilities/Publications/pubdocs/EnrollProjectionMethodologiesFinalReport2008.pdf.
  3. Spar, M.A. (2007, August 31). Fall Membership Projection Methodology. Charlottesville, VA: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

National Projections (including state data):

  1. Hollman, F.W., Tammany, J.M., & Kallan, J.F. (2000, January). Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed at http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0038/twps0038.html.
  2. Hussar, W. (2009, September). Projections of Education Statistics to 2018. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. Accessed at http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2018/index.asp.
  3. U.S. Population Projections. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed at http://www.census.gov/population/projections/.


How To Construct State Supply and Demand Projections

These resources include some methodological discussion, but they were selected principally for the detailed descriptions they provide of the kinds of data and practical issues that must be addressed in the development of a supply and demand projection.

  1. Beaudin, B.Q., Thomson, J.S., & Prowda, P.M. (2000, April 26). Projecting State-Level Teacher Supply and Demand: Improving an Imperfect Science To Enhance Policy Decision-Making. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association. Accessed at http://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED446046.
  2. Reichardt, R. (2003). Using Teacher Supply and Demand Analysis in Policymaking. Aurora, CO: McREL.

Teacher Data

Voorhees & Barnes focuses specifically on teacher data. That is a partial focus of Reichardt, which is included in this group of resources as well as the previous group.

  1. Reichardt, R. (2003). Using Teacher Supply and Demand Analysis in Policymaking. Aurora, CO: McREL.
  2. Voorhees, R., & Barnes, G. (2003). Data Systems to Enhance Teacher Quality. Denver, CO: State Higher Education Executive Officers.


Methodological Discussions of Supply and Demand Projections for Teachers

The resources listed here focus on important methodological issues related to forecasts of teacher supply and demand and go into greater detail regarding statistical methods than the Research Analysis unit in this project. The resources included here discuss both national and state-level projections, and Gilford & Tenenbaum focuses specifically on science and mathematics teachers.

  1. Boe, E.E., & Gilford, D.M. (Eds.). (1992). Teacher supply, demand, and quality: Policy issues, models, and data bases. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Accessed at http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=2040.
  2. Gilford, D.M., & Tenenbaum, E. (1990). Precollege Science and Mathematics Teachers: Monitoring Supply, Demand, and Quality. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Accessed at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=1597.
  3. Hussar, W.J. (1999, October). Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-09. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. Accessed at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs99/1999026.pdf.


Teacher Licensure and Certification

The resources included in this section provide illumination of the issues surrounding state teacher licensure and certification. Several are databases or links to data and information on state websites.

  1. 50 States’ Certification Requirements. (2009, December 9 – updated). University of Kentucky College of Education. Accessed at http://education.uky.edu/AcadServ/content/50-states-certification-requirements.
  2. Certification and Licensure State Policy Database. (no publication date). National Comprehensive Center for Teacher Quality.
  3. Eight Questions on Teacher Licensure and Certification. (2005, December). Denver, CO: Education Commission of the States. Accessed at http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED490989.pdf
  4. Mitchell, K.J., Robinson, D.Z., Plake, B.S., & Knowles, K.T. (Eds.). (2001). Testing Teacher Candidates: The Role of Licensure Tests in Improving Teaching Quality. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. See especially pp. 34-69. Accessed at http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10090&page=34.


Research on Teacher Quality

How to define and measure teacher quality are highly controversial issues. The resources listed include several good reviews of the research on the issue. Also included is a discussion on teacher quality specifically in science and mathematics.

  1. Allen, M. (2005). Eight Questions on Teacher Preparation: What Does the Research Say? Denver, CO: Education Commission of the States. Accessed at http://www.ecs.org/html/educationissues/teachingquality/tpreport/report/acknowledgements.asp.
  2. Committee on Science and Mathematics Teacher Preparation. Educating Teachers of Science, Mathematics, and Technology: New Practices for the New Millennium. (2000). Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Accessed at http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=9832&page=1.
  3. Goe, L. (2007, October). The Link between Teacher Quality and Student Outcomes: A Research Synthesis. Washington, DC: National Comprehensive Center for Teacher Quality.
  4. Rice, J.K. (2003). Teacher Quality: Understanding the Effectiveness of Teacher Attributes. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute. Accessed at http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/books_teacher_quality_execsum_intro/


Science and Mathematics Education in the U.S.

There are a number of reports that have been and continue to be issued on the nature and status of science, mathematics, and engineering education in the United States. We have selected three here that contain information we believe could be particularly helpful to state-level efforts to assess and address their need for science and mathematics teachers.

  1. Before It’s Too Late. A Report to the Nation from the National Commission on Science and Mathematics Teaching for the 21st Century. (2000, September). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.
  2. Blank, R., Langesen, D., & Petermann, A. (2007). State Indicators of Science and Mathematics Education 2007. Washington, DC: Council of Chief State School Officers.
  3. National Science Board. (2008). Science and Engineering Indicators 2008. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation. Accessed at http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/.